ELECTORAL HANGOVER: NOTHING REALLY CHANGES.

With a lower participation comparing with last local and autonomic elections (from 54.3% to 50.6%), PP has won the elections increasing its number of ballots but losing important cities, but PSOE is happy too because it has been able to keep their electoral share while Izquierda Unida (IU, “United Left” is a coalition of communist parties) has decreased dramatically its representation. Anyway, out of interested triumphalisms, it can be read that nothing has really changed. Well, almost nothing: the left has hardly been defeated in Madrid (City and Community) and other important and representative towns like Móstoles or Alcobendas (traditionally lefty). PSOE and IU must analyze their current situation and how to develop a convincing strategy to recover ballots that can restore the traditional equally. PP has been able to give and image of efficacy, good managers of public expenses, makers of prosperity (don’t forget Madrid is leader of Spain’s growth, the real economy’s engine) and guarantor of the traditional and patriotic-nationalist-catholic Spanish values.

Leaving the case of Madrid, the things are the more or less the same. As I can read in EL PAIS, PP has increased ballots while PSOE has increased power (I think is the most correct briefing but there are a lot of aspects). Each party must celebrates as a victory but we can extract several conclusions:

a) The political panorama is more or less the same with a minimal variation (except in Madrid).

b) The electoral improvement of PP has been short but distinctly above. So they can’t demonstrate the most part of Spain support them against Zapatero’s policies and probably need to change their way of doing politics facing the next presidential elections.

c) PP is almost alone in the political map (because its proper idiosyncrasy) so they will have problems to deal with other political forces so that situation opens more chances for PSOE in halls and autonomic parliaments.

d) IU voters has given ballots to PSOE (and other parties) while PSOE has lost centre voters. I think IU strategy could be better if they go against PSOE instead go against of PP. PSOE is its very real political enemy.

e) PP has probably reached its electoral ceiling. They know where the sonic barrier is and they can’t overpass it so they will need a serious failure from PSOE (like in 1996, when PP reached the government in a deep political crisis).

f) It’s very important in certain places to have a sacred cow and/or experimented politicians if you want to win the elections. Two very different examples can illustrate this idea: Madrid and Canary Islands (a failure and a victory for PSOE).

g) Most-voted list or free pacts? Who’s better or fair? Well, PP advocates for the first option, because they have fewer opportunities for post-electoral pacts whereas PSOE has got a big dilemma: Canary Islands for Balearic Islands or Navarre?

These are some fast commentaries about this recent election but if you can comment or add something, you can use the commentaries freely.

Now, political parties are starting the strategies for the next and most important round in this political combat, the presidential/legislative elections, so they will use all the summer in it. Will we have a very hot autumn?