From hysteria to depression (from crisis to recession).
Ladies and Gentlemen: the recession is just here. No surprise. More unemployment, more re-sitting of companies, less credit, less confidence, more bankruptcies, more controls over Economies, more public money for subsidies, banks and companies but less for social polities causing more social breakdown (increasing criminality, drug abuse, despair, poverty, inequality and decreasing salaries and working conditions for the majority).
And how long are this recession going to last?? Nobody knows. Economists have got their own theories and ideologies but Neo-Keynesian ideas are winning ground because Neo-Liberal ideas have created our current nightmare scenario. But, this government intervention could be useless if the situation continues in the long term. A lot of governments can not get in to debt for more and they don’t have so much leeway so the situation can go worse if things don’t improve because we can’t forget the other latent problems: the rising prices of energy and raw materials, the war against Islamic terrorism, the environment and its catastrophic consequences, the lack of new leading industries …
If the recession continues for a long time (and it seems to last almost more than a year), our countries will need a deep adjustment in the Economic and Social structures. More flexibility, precariousness, inequality but the same or less control over sectors, because companies have more and more power and when situation improves they won’t want more government control over their activities.
So, this recession is going to be long and unfair. Let’s pull up with it!!
I don’t want to be ironic but for now I think we are in a recession, a hard recession (you can see in a dictionary of Economics what's a crisis and what's a recession). Why do I say this affirmation? Well, if we attend to the stats, we can see our economy is still growing but there are a lot of symptoms of tiredness or even free fall in housing sector. As I wrote last summer about this problem and about this threat, nobody has done anything because of the general elections. The economic situation needed to be ideal for electors (for the government's interest). It’s not (yet) a disaster but the government must intervene A.S.A.P.. But there aren’t so many possibilities and the global situation is getting worst faster and faster: higher and higher prices on petrol, food and raw materials; USA is bordering the crisis and their situation is very concerning (and there are general elections too); other countries are losing their confidence in their economic situation (UK, Ireland) or stay in stagnation (Italy or Portugal); the Euro is very high and this can be good for imports (overall petrol and raw materials) but very bad for exports (that’s the main problem for Italians nowadays); and the interest rates are increasing month by month (Libor, Euribor), so the European economies are going to get a big cold with these conditions. Besides, the European central banks sold their gold reserves last summer in a almost understanding operation (even almost suspicious for my skeptical mind), so they spent those necessary resources currently for a future stabilization.
This reality points to a kind of stagflation (stagnation + inflation) like in the 70’s: these situations share a lot of similarities but the international actors are totally different and their behaviour predictably are going to be correct this time (Latin America, China, India, Russia, Middle East countries…), so they won't take so much borrowed money. But today there are two main currencies (Euro and USD) so there are two different interest rates and these countries can play with their reserves.
But what’s the origin of this recession (in Spain)? I think its origin comes from the housing sector and its important importance in the national economy. This last prosper period has based on this sector and neither populists nor socialists haven’t been able to regulate this growth in order to control the housing market and replace progressively this important sector in the GDP for other new sectors that could retake the national development. But I understand that they’re focused on other political problems as 11-M or ETA, and the economy was in a second place (as always), so this can be another delay factor. They haven't looked for a long-term prosperity and this must be another lesson to learn when we can choose our politicians again. Neither the myopia of PP nor the "flower power" politics of PSOE are going to solve the problems.
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And we can write a lot of things about opposition’s interests in this “crisis”, the government inconsistency or about the consequences, but for now it’s quite soon. The first consequence is the increasing unemployment rate, the hard drop of the housing market, the decreasing surplus, the lack of government’s performance, the demagogic use of this recession by the opposition (without direct and clear solutions because there aren't magical and immediate solutions) and a lot of strikes. Differently to the last economic fluctuations, the general environment is clearly negative and internally, the leadership of the housing sector is falling down because the housing bubble has blown up finally and as free market, it’s suffering the adjustment. But, this is really the best new we can hear because it’s coming back to its fair place although there are a lot of people affected by its consequences. We'll see in few months where will be.
It’s a very Bourbonnic declaration but probably one of the worst mistakes in the Spanish international relations. Why didn’t you shut up? We (Spanish) can say to our Chief of the State. We know how Chávez is like and what he wanted in the Iberoamerican Summit and he just did it. But, did the King know what he was doing or not?
In any case, almost none has said anything about if Chávez is right or not about accusations (not even the Popular Party). I don’t have classified data nor special reports but everybody knows when the coup d’état occurred, the unique countries who recognized the new government were Colombia (with the conservative Alvaro Uribe), El Salvador (the neo-liberal Francisco Flores), Spain and USA. Don’t forget when Miguel Angel Moratinos said in “59 Segundos” of RTVE in 2004 (the national broadcaster) that the former Spanish government was responsible (in coordination with the republican US government) of the attempt of coup d’état. So, there are more than inklings but nothing really trustable although a very hot potato for the current social-democrat government. And I wouldn’t want to add anything to this question.
Referred to national pre-electoral battlefield, it’s very clear PP is using this to attack the government (along with anything useful, whatever it was). Probably jealous by the diplomatic success in Chad, now they have found a new chance to criticize again. I would like to be impartial but it’s impossible with its “dirty strategy” of “No to everything from the government” and “everything goes in the way to re-conquest the power”. But, if the government explains what happened in 2002 and tells the truth, the democratic credibility of PP could decline so much when elections are so near.
And finally, does the Don Juan Carlos know the repercussion of all this? Would he want a break up in the relations with Venezuela or his behaviour was only a bad-tempered reaction? Anyway, I don’t go to praise him because everybody knows internally he didn't act correctly whatever we think about. And if the relations with Venezuela get worse, Venezuelan people is going to suffer more because this incident can give more reasons for the radicalization of the Bolivarian Movement in that country what means practically more power to Chávez. In my opinion, the government should 1st calm everybody (PP, King and Chávez) down and then redefine its international policy with Venezuela in order to keep our interest safe there and the Venezuelan people’s welfare. A smart strategy and serious arguments can defeat irrational critics. Don’t forget Venezuela (check this information in Spanish from the Foreign Affairs Office) is a high-growth country due to its oil and it has been experimenting dramatic social changes that can modernize its social and economic structure (for better or for worst). This moment, as other energetic crises, is another opportunity for oil-producer countries to improve its future if they don’t commit the same mistakes as then and Spanish companies can take advantage and be part of it. So, let’s do things better and together.
The title is very direct but sincere and I would want to relate to the current political situation. In these days, it’s calm because the summer and the post-electoral hang-over but, and nobody think in a question like that. But probably in September, when politicians will come from their holidays and start the electoral race, they will shake the old hates between “the two Spains”. For many politicians (even writers and journalists) it’s a mere tool because they use fragilities of our system (in their own benefit). Those ghosts still live in our collective memory, in one or another political direction, so I think it’s really necessary to establish a political commission in order to work for (they’re some examples so introduce yourself suggestions if you please in our comments):
a)Rebuild the fraternity between Spaniards using common values and ideas.
b)Redesign our political regime: we have never been asked for an elected regime (republic or monarchy?).
c)Create a real independence and separation of the three powers (legislative, executive and judicial).
d)The final closure of the Spanish Civil War’s injuries and hates: consideration for both sides and acts of forgiveness and social peace.
e)Re-establish the relations with the Catholic Church according with its current roll in our society.
f)Common condemnation to Franquism from all political parties.
g)Redesign our territory in real separations, solving problems of regional identities.
h)Your ideas…
If our political transition was designed in Washington and directed by Suárez and King Juan Carlos, this new transition would be totally ours.
I think firmly Spain is ready now for a political discussion (not for the change!!!) in this sense after this legislature. It’ll be very complicated to join all political parties in it and even it’ll be more difficult in some aspects (the crucial ones), but I think Spanish people is ready for a real and popular change.
PS: Suggestions are admited and even if you're not agree with me, send me your reasons. Thanks.
Do you know what is it? Yes, that’s it: housing. Probably, you have read a lot of articles and heard opinions and claims, but do we deserve this situation? Why haven’t we reacted before? Why haven’t government done anything? Why has media treated only Malaya Case and not real questions? Why are we so slept? Somehow or other, there are too many questions.
In this country, people seem to have more interest on frivolities than real problems. This recent boom has been used by many to make a lot of money. There were previous prosperity periods for this sector but this is probably the worst for the borrowers because they have to pay a mortgage for more than thirty years for a modest flat. Houses are overvalued, and everybody knows that, but real state agents, politicians, construction companies have seen in this sector the hen of golden eggs to take advantage of the necessity of the youth and the greed of the rest of investors. The situation was ideal: accommodation for the last baby-boom generation, the big arrival of emigrants, low interest rates, lack of state investment in subsidized-housing (probably on purpose of increase the economic growth) and probably others but important. As citizens, not as housing experts, we knew these factors and now the situation is quite fragile.
For a big part of young (and not so young) people with precarious salaries and working conditions, it’s impossible to buy a house. It’s quite ironic, if we remember when we people spoke about “mileuristas” (people who earn more or less 1.000 euros a month) and we complaint about this situation. Now, the situation is worst because the housing prices are so high and it’s impossible to pay a flat with those salaries and temporary contracts (for mortgages). I know people with progressive mortgages that they are only paying interests. And besides, the low inflation doesn’t allow reducing the real quotes in the following years. So, a lot of people have to delay life plans again (because they started to work lately) although you have the option of hoping good luck in state houses (which is a pure lottery) or renting. But this is another abuse: here in Spain we have paying more to rent a flat than in Germany, France or United Kingdom when they have much bigger salaries and better working conditions!! And more: these wages can’t permit to save money so as to buy a house. But the problem is similar in other countries, like Ireland, UK or USA.
The historical situation in the American Housing Market.
We are really exploited by older generations, socially. There hasn’t had intergenerational solidarity while Government has done nothing really important (only the law for the soil’s control). And, what solutions can we suggest? I don’t know if it can be important or not if you think lefty, conservative or anarchist while you have this problem but I think the solution is to demand state investment in housing (because a house is mainly a right not a business) and a control of renting that permits rational prices.
Source: Sociedad de Tasación S.A.
I think it’s time to claim rights because the next elections. Whereas the political discussion has been centred on 11M, ETA (the Basque terrorist group), homosexual weddings, the new subject (Education for citizenship) or others, this transcendental topic has been left away from our politician’s speeches (probably it's a very hot potato in their political agendas). I don’t want to remove importance to these affairs but I think they’ve been used to create in some way as a curtain of smoke.
Anyway, if you have something to say and solutions (overall), please write a comment.
With a lower participation comparing with last local and autonomic elections (from 54.3% to 50.6%), PP has won the elections increasing its number of ballots but losing important cities, but PSOE is happy too because it has been able to keep their electoral share while Izquierda Unida (IU, “United Left” is a coalition of communist parties) has decreased dramatically its representation. Anyway, out of interested triumphalisms, it can be read that nothing has really changed. Well, almost nothing: the left has hardly been defeated in Madrid (City and Community) and other important and representative towns like Móstoles or Alcobendas (traditionally lefty). PSOE and IU must analyze their current situation and how to develop a convincing strategy to recover ballots that can restore the traditional equally. PP has been able to give and image of efficacy, good managers of public expenses, makers of prosperity (don’t forget Madrid is leader of Spain’s growth, the real economy’s engine) and guarantor of the traditional and patriotic-nationalist-catholic Spanish values.
Leaving the case of Madrid, the things are the more or less the same. As I can read in EL PAIS, PP has increased ballots while PSOE has increased power (I think is the most correct briefing but there are a lot of aspects). Each party must celebrates as a victory but we can extract several conclusions:
a)The political panorama is more or less the same with a minimal variation (except in Madrid).
b)The electoral improvement of PP has been short but distinctly above. So they can’t demonstrate the most part of Spain support them against Zapatero’s policies and probably need to change their way of doing politics facing the next presidential elections.
c)PP is almost alone in the political map (because its proper idiosyncrasy) so they will have problems to deal with other political forces so that situation opens more chances for PSOE in halls and autonomic parliaments.
d)IU voters has given ballots to PSOE (and other parties) while PSOE has lost centre voters. I think IU strategy could be better if they go against PSOE instead go against of PP. PSOE is its very real political enemy.
e)PP has probably reached its electoral ceiling. They know where the sonic barrier is and they can’t overpass it so they will need a serious failure from PSOE (like in 1996, when PP reached the government in a deep political crisis).
f)It’s very important in certain places to have a sacred cow and/or experimented politicians if you want to win the elections. Two very different examples can illustrate this idea: Madrid and Canary Islands (a failure and a victory for PSOE).
g)Most-voted list or free pacts? Who’s better or fair? Well, PP advocates for the first option, because they have fewer opportunities for post-electoral pacts whereas PSOE has got a big dilemma: Canary Islands for Balearic Islands or Navarre?
These are some fast commentaries about this recent election but if you can comment or add something, you can use the commentaries freely.
Now, political parties are starting the strategies for the next and most important round in this political combat, the presidential/legislative elections, so they will use all the summer in it. Will we have a very hot autumn?
Probably nobody will read this paper, taking into consideration this one has been writing in English but I want to point it to people in the entire planet about the current political situation in my country, Spain (my opinion). I’ll develop my arguments and it could be I’m wrong but I have my reason and the main feature of this page is its name: dialectics. I don’t need insults or lies to support my ideas.
I see the political panorama in Spain with concern. I don’t want to defend one or the other part in the conflict, so I will give my opinion of the several parts.
PSOE (Spanish Social-democrat Party) won the elections and they’re ruling without majority in the Congress so they need political support from smallest parties, mainly communists and nationalists. Their main features have been tolerance and dialogue with all political spectrum but they didn’t reach agreements with the Popular Party (PP), so little by little PP opposition was going harder and harder (in the other hand, PP has practically been isolated). I think this position had been less radical if the government’s legal and political proposals had been more moderated but we must think who the government’s supporters are. The rights for homosexual collective, the discussion of Ibarretxe’s plan for the Basque Country in the Congress, the new Catalonian Statute that establish Catalonia as a nation into a bigger nation (Spain), the international relations in the first period that contemplated bad relations with USA (don’t forget Zapatero’s scorn to the American troops during the National Day’s parade) and good with leaders like Hugo Chávez or Evo Morales (this was more exaggerated by the conservative media that in reality) or the dialogue with ETA. We can discuss all these subjects but we must respect the game’s rules. This situation gives a bad image over the people who thinks everything is useful for their political targets so this can be bad for future behaviour if PP recovers in the next elections (because probably they will not reach majority and they won’t do so much considering their isolation). And contrary, I think we have other and more important problems like housing, international terrorism (don’t forget recent Al Qaeda’s threats), emigration or equalize incomes among people and territories. Summing up: the opposition should assume and respect other opinions, considering more people are supporting government’s projects (although I think the best for us would be a big agreement in capital aspects). If they still follow this hard line it can have feedback consequences: they can lose a lot of people in the political centre (it can basic in the next elections).
Finally, I think things are not bad. There are only uncertain subjects as the political problem in the Basque Country and one of the government’s missions is solving it (with or without dialogue). I don’t want to extend so much about the current situation but the economy (globally) lives one of the best moments, Spain is well-known and admired in many countries because our solidarity and cooperation (and not because military occupations) and our international importance is bigger day by day. Spain needs moderation, good rulers and common targets for all us, so politicians: change your chips, please!!
A nadie le asombran ya (o eso me parece) las declaraciones de los promotores de la Guerra de Irak acerca de la situación real del conflicto. Lo que resulta increíble es que lo hayan hecho a estas alturas, es decir, que su orgullo o cinismo sea mayor que la evidencia de la situación en el país asiático.
Y lo que aún parece más increíble si cabe es que quieran dialogar con Siria e Irán, dos estados “gamberros” (según el gabinete de exteriores de EE.UU.) de la región, para buscar una cooperación que lleve a la estabilización del país. Lo que es evidente es que a esta situación se ha llegado por que no hay más opciones. El potencial militar con el que querían hacer creer al mundo de la victoria no ha sido suficiente. Pero una cosa me sorprende: ¿a nadie se le había pasado por la cabeza que el mundo en 2003 no es igual que el hace diez años? ¿Alguien pensó que se iban a desatar las tensiones que ya existían en el país entre las distintas comunidades que lo componen (principalmente sunnitas, chiítas y kurdos)? ¿Por qué no dan la cara ahora todos esos políticos y periodistas que habían apoyado las tesis de la invasión? Era evidente que estaban engañando al mundo o bien que estaban haciendo las cosas “a tontas y a locas” y con mucha prepotencia. Yo, como tengo en buena estima la inteligencia (algunas más que otras, por supuesto) de las personas, me decanto por la primera, lo cual deja en muy baja estima su moralidad. Pero lo peor de esto es que han sido capaces de llevar a cabo un acto atroz sin el respaldo de la ciudadanía y me preguntó: ¿cómo es posible que esto ocurra en países con democracias tan asentadas y ejemplares? ¿Valen más las opiniones de los "lobbies" y empresas que las de los ciudadanos que han hecho mil y una manifestaciones? ¿No es un peligroso precedente?
Muchas incógnitas pero pocas respuestas, aunque creo que se podrían sacar otras interesantes conclusiones:
a) Las ocupaciones militares no son efectivas en todos los casos. Son extremadamente caras y muchas veces se producen escándalos tales como los de la prisión de Abu Graib. Y aunque en los casos en que se enmascaran de operaciones para el mantenimiento de la paz, la mayor parte de la población sabe a qué van sus tropas o al menos no se creen las tesis gubernamentales (como en España o Italia).
b) Muchos analistas e historiadores apuntan a que el gobierno de Bush es el peor en la historia de EE.UU. aunque nadie se atreve claramente a decirlo con rotundidad dado que es necesario un análisis con perspectiva histórica.
c) Los halcones tuvieron que convertirse en palomas, como si fuera un cambio de sexo forzado. Es muy interesante leer ahora ya que han pasado años, entrevistas a los halcones (como Paul Wolfowitz) de la Casa Blanca durante el primer mandato de G. W. Bush y comprobar lo irrealista de algunos sus planteamientos.
d) No creas todo lo que leas. Contrasta la información y si no puedes, no apoyes nada de nada. Esta guerra ha demostrado claramente que todo el mundo tiene intereses propios (hasta Francia, Alemania o Rusia, que se oponían al ver peligrar sus intereses particulares).
e) Las potencias democráticas pueden saltarse las leyes internacionales cuando les convengan pero quieren aplicarla a otras naciones, como en el caso de Irán o Corea del Norte debido al desarrollo de sus proyectos de dotarse de armamento nuclear. La ONU y la democracia pierden credibilidad en estas situaciones, generando argumentos a los que no respetan los procedimientos democráticos en sus países.
f) El pueblo siempre pierde. Se podrían sacar más conclusiones en una lista casi interminable pero esta que planteo como final es para mí la más importante. Tanto los ciudadanos de los países que han enviado tropas pero especialmente los que sufren el conflicto, son los grandes perdedores. Y lo peor de todo: son los grandes olvidados.
Creo que todos esperamos que desde bases más humildes, realistas y sobre todo con visos de cooperación internacional, la situación mejore y genere expectativas positivas sobre otros conflictos en Oriente Medio y Próximo.
